domingo, 24 de julio de 2016

La conectividad es el nuevo destino de las naciones



En esta charla en Ted.com Parag Khanna comparte su visión sobre el futuro de las megaciudades, efecto de la Urbanización en acto en todo el planeta, una de las 4 macro tendencias que están cambiando el mundo (junto con la aceleración tecnológica, la conexión global y el envejecimiento).

En el futuro será la conectividad la que defina el destino de una región y de la mega ciudad asociada, no su geografía (es decir no tener acceso al mar, estar amenazada por vecinos "gorilas" etc.): conectividad entendida como suma de infraestructuras compartodas: carreteras, ferrocarriles, rutas aereas, gaseoductos, oleoductos, fibra óptica, redes de agua y electricidad, ..

Estoy de acuerdo con Parag que lo que necesita Middle East son más conexiones de todo tipo entre Israel y sus países vecinos, no armas: Iran, Iraq, Siria, ... necesitan infraestructuras comunes para crecer y prosperar, que unan en lugar de dividir. En Japón existe el mayor polo de población conectado del planeta, con China muy cerca: Johannesburgo y Lagos representan el prototipo de las megaciudades que suman entre un tercio y la mitad de la economía de sus regiones, como Lima, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo en Latam, o San Francisco y Los Angeles, New York/Boston/Washington en las costas oeste y este de USA etc.

Un mundo donde la conectividad haga la verdadera diferencia.

La conectividad es el nuevo destino de las naciones



En esta charla en Ted.com Parag Khanna comparte su visión sobre el futuro de las megaciudades, efecto de la Urbanización en acto en todo el planeta, una de las 4 macro tendencias que están cambiando el mundo (junto con la aceleración tecnológica, la conexión global y el envejecimiento).

En el futuro será la conectividad la que defina el destino de una región y de la mega ciudad asociada, no su geografía (es decir no tener acceso al mar, estar amenazada por vecinos "gorilas" etc.): conectividad entendida como suma de infraestructuras compartodas: carreteras, ferrocarriles, rutas aereas, gaseoductos, oleoductos, fibra óptica, redes de agua y electricidad, ..

Estoy de acuerdo con Parag que lo que necesita Middle East son más conexiones de todo tipo entre Israel y sus países vecinos, no armas: Iran, Iraq, Siria, ... necesitan infraestructuras comunes para crecer y prosperar, que unan en lugar de dividir. En Japón existe el mayor polo de población conectado del planeta, con China muy cerca: Johannesburgo y Lagos representan el prototipo de las megaciudades que suman entre un tercio y la mitad de la economía de sus regiones, como Lima, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo en Latam, o San Francisco y Los Angeles, New York/Boston/Washington en las costas oeste y este de USA etc.

Un mundo donde la conectividad haga la verdadera diferencia.

La conectividad es el nuevo destino de las naciones



En esta charla en Ted.com Parag Khanna comparte su visión sobre el futuro de las megaciudades, efecto de la Urbanización en acto en todo el planeta, una de las 4 macro tendencias que están cambiando el mundo (junto con la aceleración tecnológica, la conexión global y el envejecimiento).

En el futuro será la conectividad la que defina el destino de una región y de la mega ciudad asociada, no su geografía (es decir no tener acceso al mar, estar amenazada por vecinos "gorilas" etc.): conectividad entendida como suma de infraestructuras compartodas: carreteras, ferrocarriles, rutas aereas, gaseoductos, oleoductos, fibra óptica, redes de agua y electricidad, ..

Estoy de acuerdo con Parag que lo que necesita Middle East son más conexiones de todo tipo entre Israel y sus países vecinos, no armas: Iran, Iraq, Siria, ... necesitan infraestructuras comunes para crecer y prosperar, que unan en lugar de dividir. En Japón existe el mayor polo de población conectado del planeta, con China muy cerca: Johannesburgo y Lagos representan el prototipo de las megaciudades que suman entre un tercio y la mitad de la economía de sus regiones, como Lima, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo en Latam, o San Francisco y Los Angeles, New York/Boston/Washington en las costas oeste y este de USA etc.

Un mundo donde la conectividad haga la verdadera diferencia.

domingo, 12 de junio de 2016

Digitalización y metodologías ágiles


El mundo de los media está teniendo la misma disrupción exponencial que el transporte o la hostelería y los players tienen nombres "nuevos".
 
En EEUU, Google y Facebook facturan en un mes más por publicidad que todos los periódicos juntos.

El valor de The Washington post adquirido por Jeff Bezos en 2013 fue de 36,8 MUS, (menos que su avión privado usado Falcon900). 

Cualquier persona con un dispositivo de acceso a la red es hoy en teoría un periodista/brand manager/comunicador/evangelista/promotor/detractor/blogger/community manager/Chief Engagement Officer/ .....

La digitalización es la gran apuesta de las empresas y en las compañias donde invierto solemos utilizar metodologías ágiles (tipo Scrum) y ser muy digitales, sobre todo para manejar grupos de trabajo remotos y always on las 24 horas. 

Cuando trabajas con nómadas digitales, la cosa se pone más interesante y exótica todavía :) y sitos como Roam https://www.roam.co o SURF OFFICE http://www.thesurfoffice.com empiezan a estar en tu vida. 

Lo bueno es que luego te acostumbras a utilizar las mismas metodología para temas de management puro y esto afecta a las reuniones (pocas, cortas y de pié), las herramientas de gestión (One Page Plan, un plan estratñegico en una hoja), la comunicación interna, a trabajar en red (¿porqué abrir dos documentos si podemos trabajar todos en el mismo?), ...

Dejadme compartir una sugerencia de una herrramienta de "digitalización"  que utilizamos https://slack.com  y un artículo ( en https://medium.com)  de un colega que lo explica mejor que yo (es en Inglés pero confío no sea un problema).
Shut down your office 

Actualmente en otra empresa estamos probando con Jira

https://es.atlassian.com/software/jira y aquí otro artículo que cuenta la experiencia
So you want to manage a product

El modo más innovador que conozco para eliminar papeles es inclinar de 15º las mesas de l@s sospechos@s :) (sobre todo de sus asistentes).

Go Digital (Be digital).

jueves, 26 de mayo de 2016

Commencement day talk de Steve Blank en NYU

Reporto aquí el discurso integral de Steve Blank en la graduación de 2016 de la NYU.
Cualquier comentario que no sea disfrutar del texto, sobra.
Thank you for the opportunity to address you on your graduation from this esteemed engineering school. I’m honored to help you celebrate this important milestone.

NYU commencement speech
Your life is already full of milestones: Your first steps, your first kiss, passing a driving test, this graduation. And there are more to come: your first job, getting married, buying a house, having a child, becoming a manager, starting a company, retirement – and eventually commencement speaker :-)
In 33% of the commencement speeches this year, 2.8 million graduates are going to hear advice about “follow your own path.” Or “Learn from others”. Or the perennial favorite, “you can make a difference.”
All of this is great advice. In fact, I’m going to give you exactly the same advice. But in very few of these speeches does anyone let you in on why we’re telling you this with such passion and urgency.
So today as we celebrate your graduation I’m going to tell you why.
-----
When I was young, I learned a quote in Sunday school, that has stayed with me throughout my life. It said, "teach us to number our days that we gain a heart of wisdom ". Since then I’ve had a series of interesting careers: technician in the Air Force, tech writer, marketer, entrepreneur, CEO and now educator and mentor.
But this idea has never been far from my mind: That most of us will wake up 28,762 days- and then one day - we won't.
That means you have about 21,000 days left -  and about 14,000 of them for your career.  So herein lies the urgency.
In every startup I did, every new course I created, and everything I've taught, the phrase "make every day count" took on new meaning when I knew how many were left.
So how do you live a life making the most of each day?
That’s the challenge we all face - and we all make different choices on how we do it. But this morning I’d like to share three short stories – about how I made my days count and gained some wisdom from others.
_________
So my first story is about Taking Risks and Pushing Boundaries
As you enter the working world, you’ll hear things like, “That’s not how we do things here.”  “It’s never been done that way before.”  and “The rules say you can’t do this.”
Some of these rules will keep you from killing yourself on the job. Some are required for you to gain the skills to perform your job. But most everything else people will tell you about rules is wrong.  Not kind of wrong, but spectacularly wrong. It’s ironic because ignoring the rules is what drives innovation and invention. While most visionaries turn out to be hallucinating, the few who are right push the human race further along.
Let me give you an example.
When I retired after 21 years working in 8 startups, I was invited to be a guest lecturer at the business school at the University of California Berkeley. They thought I could tell good stories about what it was like to start a company. Soon I began to pester the head of the department about this new idea I had… that startups are not smaller versions of large companies.
Actually they’re entirely different.
Established businesses execute business models while startups search for them.
Yet everyone – investors, entrepreneurs, academics -- expected new startups to follow the same practices that worked for large companies - write a business plan, forecast 5-year sales projections and build the product without ever talking to customers.

I was a lone voice inside one of the country’s leading business schools challenging the conventional wisdom of the last 40 years, proposing that everything we were teaching about starting companies was wrong.

I can’t tell you the number of very smart professors and venture capitalists who laughed in my face. But I didn’t give up.  Because I knew the clock was running and I was determined to make every day count.
I saw something that they didn’t and to their credit…Berkeley’s Business School and then Stanford’s Engineering School let me write and teach a new course based on my ideas.
Five years later the U.S. National Science Foundation adopted this class, now called the Innovation Corps, as the basis of commercializing science in the Unites States. This unorthodox idea has become a movement …called The Lean Startup -  and has led to entirely new ways to start companies, commercialize science, and think about innovation.
How did this happen?  Innovation comes from those who see things that others don’t. It comes from people who not only question the status quo -  But keep persisting in the face of all the naysayers. 
Because your time here is limited.
_________
My second story is about Mentors and gaining the heart of the wisdom
Questioning dogma doesn’t mean rejecting all advice and guidance from others who’ve come before you.
In fact, your career and life can take on a very different trajectory if you find mentors and use that time to learn from their experience.
As an entrepreneur in my 20’s and 30’s, I was lucky to have two extraordinary mentors, each brilliant in his own field. One, Ben Wegbreit taught me how to think – Ben reviewed my first datasheet and returned it with entire paragraphs circled in red labeled “CFP” – I finally got enough nerve to ask him what CFP meant and he said, “Content Free Paragraph”. While Ben taught me how to think, Gordon Bell taught me what to think about. Gordon had the uncanny ability to see the future trajectory of computer and chip technology way before I even understood the problem.
I had no idea I was being mentored and never asked for it. But I sought out these really smart people, because I wanted to know what they knew.
In hindsight I realize that what made these brilliant engineers put up with me was that I was giving as good as I was getting. While I was learning from them – and their years of experience and expertise – what I was giving back was equally important. I brought fresh insights and new perspectives to their thinking.
In hindsight I realize now that mentorship is a two-way street.
Finding a mentor can change your life – this is where you can gain a heart of wisdom.
So if someone takes an interest in your work and career, be open to their advice.  And think about what you can bring to the relationship.
Teach us to number our days that we gain a heart of wisdom.
_________
My last story is about serendipity and making the days count
Some of you may think you have a clear sense of where your career is headed.  Others of you may still have no idea. But either way, while the days count down, none of you should be worrying about what you will be doing 10 or 20 years from now. Because none of it will happen as you expect.
While your education has prepared you to master the facts, the other half of your brain needs to learn to trust in serendipity. By the way, the engineering definition of serendipity is, that life is too unpredictable to pre-compute. Serendipity is when it all comes together and you put all the days of your life into what becomes that of heart of wisdom.
Here’s the latest way Serendipity changed my life.
Over the last decade I’ve watched the Lean Startup approach to entrepreneurship take off. The National Science Foundation adopted it.  The Lean LaunchPad class is now taught around the world - and VC’s expect entrepreneurs to talk about not just their technology but their customer development findings.
It was amazing to see the movement I started grow and thrive.
Just recently serendipity sent me down a new road that connected dots from 40 years ago to today.
When I was 18 I served in the Air Force during the Vietnam War.
After hanging up my uniform I had little interaction with the military until four decades later, when a group in the Department of Defense invited me to give a talk about Lean methods. Shortly after that, I met Pete Newell, the retired head of the Army’s Rapid Equipping Force – one of the best Lean and agile organizations in the military – and I met Joe Felter an ex Special Forces Colonel. As I spent time with Pete, Joe and the Department of Defense, two things struck me –
  • The U.S. government is still operating like a 20th century organization while our adversaries are operating at 21st century speed. And
  • Solving this problem requires new ways to think about how to organize, build, and deploy national security solutions.
Serendipity had just brought together my military experience of 40 years ago and the tools and techniques I spent the last decade building for Lean Startups.
I asked: What if we could teach students how use Lean methods to solve the most challenging national security problems? A new class - Hacking for Defense - was born.
Together with Pete and Joe and support from many others, we just taught this class for the first time - and hopefully will soon teach it here.
We plan to scale the class across the country and create a new opportunity for students to engage in national service—solving problems to keep Americans safe at home and abroad.
How did this happen?  Showing up a lot, and being open to new seemingly unconnected experiences, helped me create something that never existed before.
---
For me, knowing I was counting the days made me choose to work on things that pushed boundaries and made us collectively smarter.
So what do these stories mean for you?
  1. Take risks and push boundaries
  2. Learn from wise people who may know more than you do
  3. And let serendipity happen.
---
Of course only you can decide what you will do with the 14,000 days in your career.
But as engineers trained here at NYU you have a distinct advantage. As graduates you’ve been given the tools to design and build things to help people live better lives. You can solve major challenges the world faces.  You can create something that never existed.
Congratulations class of 2016.
My challenge to you - make every day ahead mean something.
Teach us to number our days that we gain a heart of wisdom
Make all the days of your life matter.

lunes, 28 de marzo de 2016

Realidad virtual (y aumentada)

La realidad virtual (y aumentada) ya es parte viva del panorama de las experiencias que vivimos cada día, como habitantes de un mundo dominado por tecnologías que cambian al ritmo de la Ley de Moore.

Comparto algunos inventos  que me parecen dignos de mención por ser pioneros y atrevidos en concepto y ejecución.

MINI: Corto muy experiencial



ROCA GALLERY (BARCELONA/MADRID): un nuevo espacio inmersivo



Loewe: holograma (visible en su Museo en Goya 8, Madrid) que representa 3 generaciones de artesanos creando el "Amazonas", bolso icono de la firma de lujo creada por Enrique Loewe (hoy parte del grupo LVMH).


Vivir un espacio con los 5 sentidos es la nueva frontera del "branded content", para un marketing pensado para "millennials" y las nuevas generaciones de nativos digitales.



domingo, 27 de marzo de 2016

Riesgos geopolíticos en la economía global




Reproduzco aquí por comodidad un artículo muy interesante de mi Maestro Marvin Zonis sobre las principales amenazas del mundo libre, un resumen brillante de una clase magistral de geopolítica, actual y con "final feliz".

Comparto con Marvin su visión optimista y su consejo de "invertir ahora", "cuando hay sangre en las calles", como decía Edmund de Rothschild en el siglo 18, "aunque la sangre sea la tuya".

Kazaksthan, Slovakia y Bosnia Herzegovina han sido los 3 principales beneficiarios de un sensible incremento de la inversión extranjera directa entre los primeros semestres de 2014 y de 2015, seguidos por 2 tigres del sur este Asiático (India y Thailand).

Sin embargo, en países con muchos conflictos abiertos (como Egypto) la inversión extranjera se ha mantenido casi intacta, mientras si es cierto que en  Turquía, China o Saudi Arabia el flujo ha disminuido, respectivamente un 25, 26 y 51%, éste sigue siendo muy relevante y se ha disparado globalmente hacía los países emergentes al finalizar 2015.

El futuro es mejor de lo que pensamos y el desarrollo exponencial de las tecnologías, el avance de la ingeniería genética, robótica y de la inteligencia artificial harán abundantes lo que hoy es escaso, como el agua potable, la energía renovable o las curas a enfermedades incurables hoy. 

La semana pasada Alphago, una máquina de Google, le ha ganado 4 a 1 al campeón mundial de "Go", un juego muy humano, con un tablero con más posibilidades que átomos en el universo y donde es muy difícil saber quien está ganando. Si las máquinas aprenden a esta velocidad es muy probable que en 20 años una especie de píldora cure la mayoría de los cánceres o nos permita aprender Chino. 

El terrorismo de todo color, el fanatismo, la incompetencia de muchos gobernantes o aspirantes, son males terribles, pero menores si los comparamos con el progreso costante, masivo, imparable de la mayoría de la humanidad, se mida por donde se mida.

Por cierto, la foto que encabeza este post no es de Marvin, sino representa una entrevista interesantísima a David Ignatius (director asociado y columnista del Washington Post) por The Chicago Council sobre las razones del terror en Bruselas y Francia, muy relacionada con éste artículo (y con Marvin).
 

Business Investment In A World Beset By Anxiety

By Marvin Zonis
“Folks are dumb where I come from,
They ain't had any learning.
Still they're happy as can be 
Doin' what comes naturally.”
Irving Berlin wrote the music and lyrics for the 1946 musical, Annie Get Your Gun that starred Ethel Merman. It was a smash hit with over 1100 performances in New York alone.

The advice in the song seems to me to be perfect wisdom for businesses today. “Doin’ what comes naturally” for business is to seek ever expansive markets at ever lower real production costs commensurate with levels of assumed risk.

That is precisely what businesses should be doing now despite the chilling terrorist attacks in Paris and Brussels and what appears to be other insurmountable global obstacles.

China is the throes of a massive growth slowdown and a massive distribution of political power. President Xi is centralizing power in his hands in a fashion not seen since the days of Mao while militarizing the South China Sea.

The countries that had benefitted from China’s rise by supplying it will all manner of raw materials and minerals find their export revenues slashed and their economies dramatically weakened. What looked like the ‘Great African Boom’ has turned into more of growth as usual.

EU members are struggling with the refugee crisis, a possible Brexit, a possible Grexit, an increasingly authoritarian Poland and Hungary, a menacing Vladimir Putin, the threat of ISIS terrorism, and slow economic growth.

The Middle East continues to live through an Islamic civil war with Iran and Saudi Arabia supporting their proxies and also intervening directly in the wars in Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Power in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has flowed into the hands of the 30 year old, inexperienced son of King Salman, who has insisted on maintaining oil production levels. The result has been turmoil in global oil markets.

Even the United States, the bastion of political stability, has been shaken by the Trump phenomenon, the staggering increase in the wealth and incomes of the already rich, the hollowing out of the middle class, the slow growth of productivity, and the increase in the death rate of middle aged whites.

“Doin’ what comes naturally” for business in conditions of what looks like global political and economic turmoil would seem to suggest it’s time to batten down the hatches; to seal every company from the variety of risks that are everywhere in the world.

But to the contrary. It was Baron Rothschild, the 18th century member of the legendary family, who argued, “Buy when there’s blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own.” That explanation for what it meant to be a contrarian investor is appropriate for today.

For there is an entirely different story that can be told about the world and that story argues for a far more ambitious stance towards the global economy. Businesses should be investing now to acquire market access, shut down competitors, and boost profits. Globalization has not run its course but will strengthen once again as the economy passes through this current period of turmoil, driven by the inexorable logic of larger markets and facilitated by the exponential growth of technology.

But why not wait until then? For one thing, firms that operate in the dollar economy can acquire the currencies of many other countries at bargain basement rates. For another, in the slowdown, foreign investment has been particularly welcomed by most developed and emerging markets.

Where to go? One way is to look at where other firms have made foreign direct investments. According to the Financial Times, these are the developing countries that received more foreign direct investment in the first half of 2015 than the comparable period of 2014 ($ Millions):
 

Country

1H 2014

1H 2015

Change
Kazakhstan
699.30
2509.35
258.84%
Slovakia
524.46
1739.28
231.63%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
862.06
2834.47
228.80%
India
12286.00
30593.29
149.01%
Thailand
1734.42
4078.89
135.17%
Myanmar
1893.10
4066.19
114.79%
Bangladesh
755.37
1592.80
110.86%
South Africa
1749.14
3101.52
77.32%
Indonesia
8437.32
13665.99
61.97%
Czech Republic
1468.65
1903.80
29.63%
Taiwan
628.93
796.42
26.63%
Qatar
530.40
619.30
16.76%
Hungary
1685.39
1967.41
16.73%
Vietnam
7504.43
7532.42
0.37%
Other developing countries received substantial investments in the first half of 2015, but less than in the first half of 2014. ($ Millions)
 
Egypt
5664.00
5659.90
-0.07%
UAE
3486.22
3481.05
-0.15%
Mexico
14451.44
13967.39
-3.35%
Argentina
1480.61
1397.00
-5.65%
Morocco
3097.24
2872.56
-7.25%
Cambodia
794.80
665.94
-16.21%
Romania
2905.59
2413.47
-16.94%
Poland
3884.12
3069.27
-20.98%
Nigeria
6810.25
5211.05
-23.48%
Turkey
3872.29
2907.16
-24.92%
China
37666.24
27805.00
-26.18%
Chile
4633.20
3116.25
-32.74%
Oman
885.80
591.30
-33.25%
Pakistan
5884.30
3894.70
-33.81%
Hong Kong
2372.50
1531.50
-35.45%
Kenya
1484.09
829.56
-44.10%
Russia
5208.62
2806.23
-46.12%
Philippines
5353.21
2788.08
-47.92%
Malaysia
13812.72
7010.37
-49.25%
Saudi Arabia
9590.09
4632.85
-51.69%
Serbia
998.75
452.45
-54.70%
Honduras
524.70
234.40
-55.33%
Colombia
1402.17
622.52
-55.60%
Ghana
2080.73
910.31
-56.25%
Uruguay
575.50
239.60
-58.37%
South Korea
5250.45
1911.38
-63.60%
Brazil
13357.55
4661.78
-65.10%
Dominica Republic
506.72
172.50
-65.96%
Macedonia FYR
673.90
216.80
-67.83%
Iraq
1309.20
316.00
-75.86%
Tunisia
1263.41
274.20
-78.30%
Nicaragua
640.80
131.00
-79.56%
Antigua
2220.60
400.00
-81.99%
Jordan
1619.90
271.30
-83.25%
Peru
5022.90
816.20
-83.75%
Zambia
2485.50
341.70
-86.25%
Panama
7780.89
689.20
-91.14%
Costa Rica
1160.50
94.90
-91.82%
Ethiopia
1781.75
143.70
-91.93%
Croatia
567.59
24.60
-95.67%
Lebanon
1165.80
40.30
-96.54%
Angola
16071.30
214.30
-98.67%
Republic of the Congo
1659.30
5.80
-99.65%
Chad
628.66
0
-100%
Mauritania
1151.70
0
-100%
Montenegro
1096.50
0
-100%
Yemen
509.90
0
-100%
 Source: fDi Markets. *includes estimates
While total capital investment flows to developing countries diminished in the first six months of 2015, the total capital invested was substantial. Many firms are obviously not put off by the perceived increase of global risks.

The Institute for International Finance estimates that total private capital inflows to Emerging Markets, in 2015 were $981 billion – substantial – although less than in any year since the global financial crisis.
(https://www.iif.com/publications/capital-flows)

Moreover, it appears that as 2015 ended, the flow to emerging markets turned up dramatically.

Aggregate Net Capital Flow And Weighted Exchange Rate Index For Selected Emerging Markets


Capital flows to the developed economies also weakened considerably in 2014:
REGION

FDI INFLOWS
($ BILLION)



2012
2013
2014
Europe

$401
$326
$289
North America

$209
$301
$146

Nonetheless, it is still the case that firms outside Europe and North America were willing to invest billions in developed markets.
Not that Baron Rothschild’s advice need be taken literally. There are streets in which blood flows. Those streets in those countries can be bypassed. But there are a very large number of countries whose economies are still growing substantially, although slower than in the boom days, and whose political risks are not substantially greater than they were.
“Doin’ what comes naturally” – embracing the global economy -- is still the best advice.